Jun 29 2008

Spain vs Germany Preview Euro 2008 Final

After 30 games spread over nearly three weeks, this is what it has all come down to- Germany vs Spain in Vienna. Joachim Loew vs Luis Aragones. Three time European champions against a one time champion. And going by form, it will be Spain who will walk into the game as favourites, having won all their games so far.

Spain have the chance to emulate France’s Euro 1984 feat. France, with the legendary Michel Platini in their ranks, were the last team to win the tournament after winning all their group games. Spain are unbeaten in this tournament, chalking up five wins on the trot. They started off their campaign by steamrolling Russia 4-1, then saw off Sweden 2-1, and beat Greece 2-1 in their final game. They beat the Italians on penalties in the quarters, and then broke Russia down again 3-0 in the semifinals. Young Cesc Fabregas was a revelation in the semifinal against Russia, and with David Villa tearing a muscle in his right leg, the Arsenal midfielder is expected to get the nod ahead of Dani Guiza. There are no other injury worries for Spain. Fernando Torres will look to exploit the nervousness shown by Germany’s two central defenders- Mertesacker and Metzelder. Both have looked far from assured, especially Metzelder. In midfield, Marcos Senna has been a revelation while Iniesta and Xavi have destroyed opposition with their precise passes.The defence is reasonably strong, with Puyol and Marchena at the heart of it, but they will have to be wary of Germany’s strength with set plays.

German skipper Michael Ballack is a huge doubt for this game with a calf injury. Should he not be present, many will feel that the trophy has already gone to Spain even before the kickoff. Germany without Ballack have looked pedestrian despite some good performances from Lahm, Podolski and Schweinsteiger.However we will see the battling Torsten Frings start, with Simon Rolfes making way for him. Germany are likely to play a formation that allows Klose to be the main target man, with Podolski working his way down the left. Podolski against Ramos will be interesting to watch, and so will Capdevila vs Schweinsteiger on the opposite flank. Thomas “der Hammer ” Hitzlsperger- the man who delivered the killer pass for Lahm to score the winning goal against Turkey, should retain his spot in midfield. Jens Lehmann has looked unsettled in goal, and could be found wanting if he plays the same way he did against Turkey.

Germany last won this tournament in 1996. Spain won it in 1964. Germany have had their share of luck in this tournament, and many pundits agree that going by form, they shouldn’t be in the final. But this German side, like all in the past, has the habit of coming up trumps when the Odds are stacked against them. Still, I think Spain will be too strong for Germany. Spain to win by two goals, with Torres and Xavi scoring.

Jun 28 2008

MLB: Can the NL be This Bad?

I was listening to the radio earlier and some “sports guy” was saying how the National league is better than the American league. I was stunned. How could he possibly say that? His reason was because the NL used the DH and the AL doesn’t. Well, that’s horrible reasoning because all anyone has to do is look at how poorly the NL is performing against the AL. And the question isn’t whether the NL is worse than the AL (they obviously are) but is it possible the NL is really this much worse?

All you have to do is look at the NL teams’ records against the AL. It’s absolutely horrendous.

Only 2 teams in the NL East have a winning record against AL teams. Those two teams are the Atlanta Braves and the New York Mets and both of them are a modest 8-6. But the rest of the division is just 15-29 against the AL. And do you know how many teams in the NL Central and NL West have a winning record against the AL? If you said none then you got it.

No other team in the NL has a winning record against the AL. Just 2 teams in all the NL have a winning record. Are you kidding me?

In fact, many AL teams are absolutely ripping through the NL and these AL teams weren’t very good against other AL teams. A perfect example is the Kansas City Royals who are 10 games over .500 against the NL but 16 games under .500 against the AL. Wow.

It’s almost laughable. These are the types of results that you’d expect from a Major league club playing against their Triple-A affiliate. Yet these two leagues are supposed to be equals.

But I still wonder have to wonder if the NL can really be this bad?

Jun 26 2008

MLB: AL Central Heating Up

The American league Central has been a very tough division to figure out.

Before the season many believed that this would be the best division in baseball. It had the World Series Champs from three years ago looking like they’d be very good this year (Chicago White Sox). It had last year’s AL runner-up the Cleveland Indians. The AL rep in the World Series two years ago looking even better this year (the Detroit Tigers) and the Minnesota Twins who are always a pretty solid if not very good team.

But at the beginning of this year the AL Central suddenly looked below average. The Tigers surprised everyonbe by losing the first 9 out of 10 games. The Indians had their winning streaks but their losing streaks too. The White Sox started off very sluggishly. And the Twins were very erratic as well. In fact, at one point there was only one team in the division with a record above .500.

Now the AL Central is really heating up. While the White Sox have struggled the past three weeks or so, the Twins have been red-hot. They have been smoking. The Twins have won 8 straight games heading into the games on Thursday. The Tigers have looked like they’ve turned it around as they’ve clawed their way back to just 3 games under .500. And the Kansas City Royals are even playing great ball - they’ve won 5 in a row.

It looks like this might just come down to the White Sox, the Twins, and the Tigers battling it out for the division. Perhaps even the Royals will challenge. And you can’t really count out the Indians either. So it certainly looks like things will be enjoyable and exciting in the AL Central as we move toward and past the All Star Break.

Jun 25 2008

Russia vs Spain preview

Guus Hiddink’s Russia face Spain in a rematch of their group opener in Viennon Thursday. Spain thrashed Russia 4-1 since then, but Guus Hiddink has masterminded a turnaround that has seen Russia beat Greece, Sweden and the Netherlands to reach the last four for the first time in over two decades.

Russia have displayed a marked improvement since the return of Andrei Arshavin to the starting XI, and all eyes will again be on the Zenit St. Petersburg playmaker as they look to orchestrate Spain’s downfall. The Russians are lightning quick on the counter, and physically outmatched the Dutch in extra time in their quarterfinal despite having faced Sweden only a few days earlier. Centreback Denis Kolodin is suspended for this clash, and Vasily Berezutskiy is likely to partner Sergey Ignasevich in defence. Kolodin had a horrid time against Torres in Russia’s opener in Innsbruck, but did a very good job of marking Ruud Van Nistelrooy in the quarterfinal game. Dmitri Torbinsky, who came off the bench to score against the Netherlands is also suspended. Full back Yuri Zhirkov loves to go forward, and in combination with Arshavin, could cause tremendous problems for Sergio Ramos on Russia’s left. Pavyluchenko must improve his conversion rate, and the likes of Zyryanov and Semshov will have to continue to creat opportunities for him. Spain will be Russia’s first serious challenge with two in form strikers in four games- Greece and Holland played with one upfront, and Ibrahimovic was not fully fit for Sweden.

Spain were the only team with a 100% record at the group stage to survive the last eight. And crossing the quarterfinal hurdle that has been their undoing in recent times would have given great confidence to Luis Aragones’ team. Spain and Russia have similar styles of play, and Spain will feel that they can cause problems for Russia with pinpoint passing and great movement, as they did in the opener. Villa and Torres were kept quiet against Italy, and the duo will be keen to roar again. The duo were clever in the opener, making diagonal runs behind the Russian defence to expose gaping holes. Aragones may be tempted to give super sub Fabregas a start, but tinkering with his starting XI at such an important juncture may not be the best thing to do. Much will depend on how Spain handle the threat posed by Arshavin. The Russian wingbacks- Anyukov and Zhirkov also love to go forward, and Spain will have to neutralise them.

Hiddink has faltered at the semifinal stage twice- with Holland in 1998 and South Korea in 2002. Spain are favourites, but Russia’s enthusiasm could see them through. Russia 3-2 Spain in extra time- Arshavin, Zhirkov and Pavyluchenko to score for Russia. Torres and Villa for Spain.

Jun 25 2008

MLB: Twins Red-Hot, Phillies Struggling

The Chicago White Sox better watchout in the American league Central because here come the Minnesota Twins. The Twins have been hot with their pitching AND their hitting. And it’s all added up to the Twins winning 7 straight games. During the winning streak the Twins have made up major ground on the White Sox and they now sit just a game and a half back. It’s been a very impressive run eventhough it has come mostly against the lowly NL West. Still a win is a win and the Twins are right where they want to be - nearly in first place.

The Twins will next move on to play the Milwaukee Brewers. This will be more of a test than their most recent opponents. Then they’ll move on to play the Detroit Tigers in what might become a very important series since the Tigers have shown some signs of life over the past month. And then the Twins will host the Cleveland Indians and then finish the first half of the season with two huge road series - at Boston and at Detroit. If the Twins can stay how until the All-Star Break then they’d have to become my favorite to win the AL Central.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Phillies seem very eager to give-up the lead in the NL East and the Atlanta Braves and the Florida Marlins just might take it from them. Well, if the Marlins weren’t struggling too then they’d already have taken the lead from the Phillies. But Philadelphia has lost 6 straight games and they are in a free-fall. They’ll try to get on the winning side of things with two more games at the Oakland A’s and then they’ll move on to play the improved Texas Rangers in Arlington. So things aren’t too difficult for the Phillies but they aren’t exactly easy either.

We’ll see if the Twins can stay hot and if the Phillies can turn things back around.

Jun 24 2008

Germany vs Turkey preview

Comeback kings Turkey face the stiffest test of their Euro 2008 campaign when they meet Germany in Basel in the first semifinal. Turkey have nine players either injured or suspended, and the situation is so bad that their third choice keeper might be used as an outfield substitute.

Despite drawing flak for the way they played in the group stages, Germany silenced their critics with a win over highly fancied Portugal in the quarterfinals. Coach Joachim Loew must decide on whether to stick with the 4-5-1 that he went with against Portugal or revert back to the 4-4-2/ The former, with Thomas Hitzlsperger and Simon Rolfes in it, gave Michael Ballack more freedom to go forward. And against a depleted Turkish defence, Loew might think of doing the same. Mario Gomez has had a horror tournament, and is unlikely to get any more chances. Torsten Frings seems to be on the road to recovery with his broken rib, and might figure in this game. The Germans will be high on confidence, and know that they will be expected to win this one.

Turkey pulled out last gasp wins against Switzerland, the Czech Republic and Turkey to come here after losing to Portugal in their initial game. Credit for masterminding this must go to Fatih Terim, but even the Emperor may not be able to orchestrate a win against Germany. With Arda Turan, Emre Asik and Sanli Tuncay getting themselves booked against Croatia, Turkey will have to do without them. There is a defensive crisis of sorts- Asik suspended, Gungor injured and Cetin doubtful. So the burden is likely to fall on the shoulders of Gokhan Zan. Tumer Metin might be forced to play for a few minutes despite his injury, as Turkey are short on options. Mehmet Aurelio returns after a one match ban, while Volkan serves the second of his two match ban. Star striker and skipper Nihat Kahveci is definitely out of this tournament, and that is a big blow. Emre Belozoglu is doing light training, although the chances of him starting are extremely low. We’ll probably see Mevlut Erdinc partner Semih Senturk upfront.

The Turkish run will probably end here. Although several Turkish players ply their trade in the Bundesliga- Hamit Altintop for example, Germany look too strong. Injuries and suspensions have taken a heavy toll on Turkey. Germany to record their first win against Turkey since 1992. A 3-1 to Germany, with Ballack, Klose, Senturk and Lahm on the scoresheet.