Last night’s game between these two was called due to rain, which was terrible for the Royals who were up big in the third inning. Wins are hard to come by for Kansas City. Tonight’s match up features Scott Elarton for the Royals and Joe Blanton for the A’s. The A’s are a decent favorite in this one (-137) and the under/over is set at 9. I happen to like the under play in this one. I think both teams are going to struggle offensively and we could have a 3-2 or 4-3 type of game.

Scott Elarton is a pitcher who is trending upward and even though he is winless this year, his outings have been pretty good for the most part. I am looking for Elarton to control the A’s hitters and allow only 5-6 hits tonight. The A’s are the worst when it comes to getting hits. They are really struggling this year. They are last in the league and average only 7.5 hits per game. The Royals are last in the league at scoring—they score 3.7 runs per game. Blanton can give up some hits, but the Royals will probably only muster 2-3 runs out of it.

This match up today has the feel of a low scoring affair. Last night’s game looked like a breakout game for the Royals and you have to wonder if they did not spend all their run-producing energy. The Royals are 2nd worse in hits, right above the A’s, at 8 per game. So basically, we have a high over at 9, the two worst hitting clubs in the league and the worst scoring team in the league in Kansas City. We also have a good pitcher for the Royals in Scott Elarton who does not give up many runs.

Last night the Angels lost a heartbreaker. It was a game they should have won. Tonight, the Angels are looking to avoid a sweep in the series. To stop the bleeding they are sending Ervin Santana to the mound. The White Sox are sending Jon Garland. Last season the Angels were only swept once all season. There is a high probability that they come away with the victory tonight. In 2005, the White Sox and Angels met with this very same pitching match up at Anaheim on May 23rd. The Angels won that game 4-0.

Santana has pitched two games at home this year and his home ERA is 0.77. He shut down the Yankees and the Tigers—two teams with high runs per game averages. Last season he faced the White Sox once, as mentioned earlier, and shut them down by going nine innings and giving up only five hits.

Garland has been terrible on the road this season. He has had three road starts and his road ERA is 9.33. To make matters worse, two of his three road starts were against bad teams with low run production numbers—Kansas City and Seattle. His other road game was at Detroit. Even though he gave up 13 hits, a walk and 7 runs in that game, he still got the win because the Tigers were equally as bad that night. Garland had two starts against the Angels in 2005 and he lost both games. His ERA in those two games was 6.92.

Bottom line, this is a good game to take the Angels. You have the pitching match up in favor of the Angels and you have them looking to avoid a sweep—something that only happened once last season.

Last night’s game between the Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Angels was pretty exciting. The White Sox came away the victor with an 8-5 win. The White Sox continue to get solid innings out of their starters. Tonight looks to be more of the same when Jose Contreras takes the mound for the White Sox. The Angels, looking to even up the series, are sending Kelvim Escobar in response. The White Sox are the favorite at -125 and the Angels are at +115. So the easy call is to bet on the White Sox right? Not so fast. I like the Angels in this one and here’s why.

Sure, Jose Contreras is having a great year so far, but look at who he has faced—Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City and Minnesota. You can wipe KC and Minnesota off the map. What about Detroit and Cleveland? Well, aside from a few breakout games, they are not really high scoring teams. If we look back to last season, Contreras faced the Angels two times and gave up 3.5 runs per game. So, if we assume he will give up 3-4 runs tonight, what about Escobar?

Escobar faced the White Sox in their Championship year just once. He only went three innings, but he had 3 strikeouts and gave up no hits or runs. He is pitching fairly well this year, but there’s limited data for this match up. The two pitchers have had one common opponent this year—the Twins. When Escobar faced the Twins, he gave up 2 runs in 6 and 2/3rds innings pitched. Basically, the same type of performance Contreras put forth, except Contreras went an extra 1 and 1/3rd of an inning.

This game looks to be a fairly even match up. Keep this in mind. Last year the Angels played 25 series at home and they were only swept once. Contreras pitched once at Anaheim and the Angels won that game 3-2.

Today, the New York Mets are at the Atlanta Braves for the second game in the series. Last night’s game saw the Mets, behind Pedro Martinez, motor passed the Braves 5-2. The Braves are sending John Thomson to the mound and they are a slight favorite at -112. The Mets are countering with leftie Tom Glavine. Both teams are evenly matched and I like the Braves to even up the series at home. The Braves and Mets have already played one series this year. In that series, the Braves lost the first game to Martinez and the Mets and then came back to win the next two. Thomson did not pitch that series, but Glavine did—he gave up a couple of runs and lost.

Thomson has pitched two shutout games at home this year (0.00 ERA). Look for him to go about 6 innings tonight, so the Braves bullpen will factor into the decision. He faced the Mets in three games last season and controlled them pretty well. He averaged 6 and a 1/3 innings per start and gave up an average of two runs per game. Look for more of the same from him tonight.

Tom Glavine has already faced the Braves this season and lost. He’s pitched on the road once this season and it was horrible. He gave up six runs in six innings to the Giants. He faced the Braves five times last year. In those outings, he averaged 6 and 2/3rds innings pitched and 3 runs per game. He gave up one hit per inning and walked a batter about every 2.5 innings. He also averaged one home run per 10 innings. Look for Glavine to go almost 7 innings tonight and for the Mets bullpen to work about 2 innings.

betting baseball successful is not just about picking the favorites, you have to mix in some dogs too. Today, I like the Seattle Mariners, who are on a roll. They are coming into Baltimore with Gil Meche taking the mound. The Orioles are sending Daniel Cabrera in response. You can take the Mariners at +122 currently. It’s always nice when you can get plus money on a team that’s evenly matched or potentially better. I believe that’s exactly what we have here today.

Gil Meche has had a rocky start to 2006, but he has faced some of the better teams in the American league. He has not faced the Baltimore Orioles this year, so we need to take a look at last season. He had one appearance against the Orioles last year and he shut them down. In 6.2 innings of work he gave up one run. If he can hold the Orioles to a few runs, the Mariners should be able to give him some run support. The Mariners are averaging 4.6 runs per game this season. This number is up from their 4.39 runs per game average last season.

On the other side of the field, Daniel Cabrera looks to shut down the M’s. His outings have not been that great either. In fact, he had a 47.25 ERA in the Yankees game. He also has played three of his four starts against pretty good teams. Last season he faced the Mariners twice and allowed two runs per game. Baltimore is averaging 5.5 runs per game. If last season is a guide, this number will drop significantly as the season progresses. Their runs per game average in 2005 was 4.5. The Orioles have a couple breakout games against bad pitchers that’s padding their average this year (18 and 16 runs). If we take those two games out, the average is a more realistic 4 runs.

Today, at 8:10pm PST, the Washington Nationals and St. Louis Cardinals play game two in the series. The Cardinals are a healthy -168 favorite and have Jason Marquis on the mound. The Nationals are countering with Tony Armas. While it would be easy to say take the Cardinals -168 at home in this one, there’s no value in it. Instead, I like the run line here. You can get the Cardinals at home against a weaker opponent for plus money by utilizing the run line. Currently, the Cardinals are +130 on the run line (-1.5).

The Cardinals are averaging 3.27 runs per game, which is on the lower end. However, that number jumps up when playing lower teams in the National league, like the Nationals. Yesterday, the Cardinals beat the Nationals 6-2. Last season, Jason Marquis faced the Nationals once and held them to no runs over nine innings. It was a dominant performance. This season, the performances by Marquis have been average, but he is 3-1 due to the overall ability of the Cardinals team.

Tony Armas is having a pretty good year—if you take the road performances off the record. His road ERA is 4.09. Last season he had one performance against the Cardinals and was blown out. He gave up five runs over five innings. He also gave up five walks in that contest. So far Armas has faced teams that he, by in large, did very well against in 2005, which might explain his 2.70 overall ERA. Tonight will definitely be a test for him. He’s averaging just over 5 innings per start so the Nationals bullpen will be a factor. This game really only has two possible plays. You either take the Nationals or you take the Cardinals on the run line.