Jun 29 2008

Spain vs Germany Preview Euro 2008 Final

After 30 games spread over nearly three weeks, this is what it has all come down to- Germany vs Spain in Vienna. Joachim Loew vs Luis Aragones. Three time European champions against a one time champion. And going by form, it will be Spain who will walk into the game as favourites, having won all their games so far.

Spain have the chance to emulate France’s Euro 1984 feat. France, with the legendary Michel Platini in their ranks, were the last team to win the tournament after winning all their group games. Spain are unbeaten in this tournament, chalking up five wins on the trot. They started off their campaign by steamrolling Russia 4-1, then saw off Sweden 2-1, and beat Greece 2-1 in their final game. They beat the Italians on penalties in the quarters, and then broke Russia down again 3-0 in the semifinals. Young Cesc Fabregas was a revelation in the semifinal against Russia, and with David Villa tearing a muscle in his right leg, the Arsenal midfielder is expected to get the nod ahead of Dani Guiza. There are no other injury worries for Spain. Fernando Torres will look to exploit the nervousness shown by Germany’s two central defenders- Mertesacker and Metzelder. Both have looked far from assured, especially Metzelder. In midfield, Marcos Senna has been a revelation while Iniesta and Xavi have destroyed opposition with their precise passes.The defence is reasonably strong, with Puyol and Marchena at the heart of it, but they will have to be wary of Germany’s strength with set plays.

German skipper Michael Ballack is a huge doubt for this game with a calf injury. Should he not be present, many will feel that the trophy has already gone to Spain even before the kickoff. Germany without Ballack have looked pedestrian despite some good performances from Lahm, Podolski and Schweinsteiger.However we will see the battling Torsten Frings start, with Simon Rolfes making way for him. Germany are likely to play a formation that allows Klose to be the main target man, with Podolski working his way down the left. Podolski against Ramos will be interesting to watch, and so will Capdevila vs Schweinsteiger on the opposite flank. Thomas “der Hammer ” Hitzlsperger- the man who delivered the killer pass for Lahm to score the winning goal against Turkey, should retain his spot in midfield. Jens Lehmann has looked unsettled in goal, and could be found wanting if he plays the same way he did against Turkey.

Germany last won this tournament in 1996. Spain won it in 1964. Germany have had their share of luck in this tournament, and many pundits agree that going by form, they shouldn’t be in the final. But this German side, like all in the past, has the habit of coming up trumps when the Odds are stacked against them. Still, I think Spain will be too strong for Germany. Spain to win by two goals, with Torres and Xavi scoring.

Jun 25 2008

Russia vs Spain preview

Guus Hiddink’s Russia face Spain in a rematch of their group opener in Viennon Thursday. Spain thrashed Russia 4-1 since then, but Guus Hiddink has masterminded a turnaround that has seen Russia beat Greece, Sweden and the Netherlands to reach the last four for the first time in over two decades.

Russia have displayed a marked improvement since the return of Andrei Arshavin to the starting XI, and all eyes will again be on the Zenit St. Petersburg playmaker as they look to orchestrate Spain’s downfall. The Russians are lightning quick on the counter, and physically outmatched the Dutch in extra time in their quarterfinal despite having faced Sweden only a few days earlier. Centreback Denis Kolodin is suspended for this clash, and Vasily Berezutskiy is likely to partner Sergey Ignasevich in defence. Kolodin had a horrid time against Torres in Russia’s opener in Innsbruck, but did a very good job of marking Ruud Van Nistelrooy in the quarterfinal game. Dmitri Torbinsky, who came off the bench to score against the Netherlands is also suspended. Full back Yuri Zhirkov loves to go forward, and in combination with Arshavin, could cause tremendous problems for Sergio Ramos on Russia’s left. Pavyluchenko must improve his conversion rate, and the likes of Zyryanov and Semshov will have to continue to creat opportunities for him. Spain will be Russia’s first serious challenge with two in form strikers in four games- Greece and Holland played with one upfront, and Ibrahimovic was not fully fit for Sweden.

Spain were the only team with a 100% record at the group stage to survive the last eight. And crossing the quarterfinal hurdle that has been their undoing in recent times would have given great confidence to Luis Aragones’ team. Spain and Russia have similar styles of play, and Spain will feel that they can cause problems for Russia with pinpoint passing and great movement, as they did in the opener. Villa and Torres were kept quiet against Italy, and the duo will be keen to roar again. The duo were clever in the opener, making diagonal runs behind the Russian defence to expose gaping holes. Aragones may be tempted to give super sub Fabregas a start, but tinkering with his starting XI at such an important juncture may not be the best thing to do. Much will depend on how Spain handle the threat posed by Arshavin. The Russian wingbacks- Anyukov and Zhirkov also love to go forward, and Spain will have to neutralise them.

Hiddink has faltered at the semifinal stage twice- with Holland in 1998 and South Korea in 2002. Spain are favourites, but Russia’s enthusiasm could see them through. Russia 3-2 Spain in extra time- Arshavin, Zhirkov and Pavyluchenko to score for Russia. Torres and Villa for Spain.

Jun 24 2008

Germany vs Turkey preview

Comeback kings Turkey face the stiffest test of their Euro 2008 campaign when they meet Germany in Basel in the first semifinal. Turkey have nine players either injured or suspended, and the situation is so bad that their third choice keeper might be used as an outfield substitute.

Despite drawing flak for the way they played in the group stages, Germany silenced their critics with a win over highly fancied Portugal in the quarterfinals. Coach Joachim Loew must decide on whether to stick with the 4-5-1 that he went with against Portugal or revert back to the 4-4-2/ The former, with Thomas Hitzlsperger and Simon Rolfes in it, gave Michael Ballack more freedom to go forward. And against a depleted Turkish defence, Loew might think of doing the same. Mario Gomez has had a horror tournament, and is unlikely to get any more chances. Torsten Frings seems to be on the road to recovery with his broken rib, and might figure in this game. The Germans will be high on confidence, and know that they will be expected to win this one.

Turkey pulled out last gasp wins against Switzerland, the Czech Republic and Turkey to come here after losing to Portugal in their initial game. Credit for masterminding this must go to Fatih Terim, but even the Emperor may not be able to orchestrate a win against Germany. With Arda Turan, Emre Asik and Sanli Tuncay getting themselves booked against Croatia, Turkey will have to do without them. There is a defensive crisis of sorts- Asik suspended, Gungor injured and Cetin doubtful. So the burden is likely to fall on the shoulders of Gokhan Zan. Tumer Metin might be forced to play for a few minutes despite his injury, as Turkey are short on options. Mehmet Aurelio returns after a one match ban, while Volkan serves the second of his two match ban. Star striker and skipper Nihat Kahveci is definitely out of this tournament, and that is a big blow. Emre Belozoglu is doing light training, although the chances of him starting are extremely low. We’ll probably see Mevlut Erdinc partner Semih Senturk upfront.

The Turkish run will probably end here. Although several Turkish players ply their trade in the Bundesliga- Hamit Altintop for example, Germany look too strong. Injuries and suspensions have taken a heavy toll on Turkey. Germany to record their first win against Turkey since 1992. A 3-1 to Germany, with Ballack, Klose, Senturk and Lahm on the scoresheet.

Jun 22 2008

Italy vs Spain preview

World champions Italy go into their quarterfinal against Group D winners Spain as underdogs after the two progressed to the knockout stage in completely different ways. The winner of this last quarterfinal takes on Russia in the last four, with Guus Hiddink’s side knocking out the Dutch in their last eight encounter.

Italy lost to the Netherlands, and were on the brink of elimination against Romania, but were saved by Gianluigi Buffon, and then managed to beat France 2-0 to come second in Group C. Roberto Donadoni was lambasted by the Italian press after the loss to the Dutch, but Italy seem to have recovered, and one feels they cannot go even further down from here. Andrea Pirlo and Gennaro Gattuso are suspended which means Perotta, De Rossi and Ambrosini should all start. Defender Andrea Barzagli is injured, and we should see Panucci and Chiellini in defence, with Zambrotta on the right and Grosso on the left. Donadoni is likely to stick with Antonio Cassano and the powerful Luca Toni in attack, leaving Alessandro del Piero on the bench.

Spain won all their three group games, although the comfort levels dipped with each game. Luis Aragones will also hope that his team does not fall prey to the winners’ curse that seems to have struck this tournament. All the teams that won their first two games with their regular teams and fielded a reserve lineup for the last group game have been knocked out in the last eight- Portugal, Croatia and Holland losing to Germany, Turkey and Russia respectively. Spain’s main threat will come from their awesome twosome of Fernando Torres and David Villa- the duo accounted for five of Spain’s eight goals at the group stage. However this tournament is already drawing parallels to their 2006 WC campaign, where they were knocked out by underdogs France in the last eight. Spain are expected to stick to their normal starting XI- Casillas in goal, Marchena, Puyol, Ramos and Capdevila in defence, Silva, Iniesta, Senna and Xavi in midfield, and Torres and Villa upfront.

Spain have a jinx with the date 22- they lost to South Korea in 2002, England in 1996 and Belgium in 1986, all on this day. Their last major encounter against Italy saw the latter win 2-1, in a game where Tasotti broke Spanish forward Luis Enrique’s nose. The game to be 1-1 after 120 minutes, and Italy to win on penalties.

Jun 21 2008

Netherlands vs Russia preview

The Netherlands take on Russia in Basel in what promises to be another exciting quarterfinal. So far, the favourites in both the previous quarterfinals have failed to advance- with Portugal losing to Germany, and Turkey beating Croatia in a penalty shootout. Guus Hiddink has the chance to take another underdog into the last four- just as he did with South Korea six years ago.

The Dutch have been one of the best teams on display in the tournament. They tore France and Italy apart on the counter, and their second string side was too good for Romania. Marco Van Basten is still likely to revert to his usual lineup- meaning the one that beat Italy and France by three goal margin. Only Nigel de Jong and Andre Ooijer are in danger of missing a potential semifinal clash against Spain or Italy, with both being on a yellow. The death of Khalid Boulahrouz’s prematurely born daughter has brought the Dutch even closer and they will want to win this for the Sevilla defender. The Dutch back four has remained solid so far, but Arshavin with his pace and trickery will be an altogether new challenge. The Dutch strength lies in its midfield and attack- Van Persie, Van Nistelrooy, Van der Vaart, Robben and Wesley Sneijder. Seven different players have scored for the Dutch in this tournament- they certainly are not reliant on one person alone.

Russia seemed an altogether different side against Lars Lagerback’s Sweden and the reason for their astounding display was their No.10- Andrei Arshavin. The Zenit St. Petersburg playmaker operating just behind Pavyluchenko, gave Russia space and pace, and the Swedish defence was constantly under threat. Right back Alexander Anyukov has also developed into a good player, and it will be a challenge for him, as the Dutch seem to prefer the left flank for their counter attacks. Fatigue might be a marginal problem for Russia, but their enthusiasm should more than make up for it. Russia’s poor finishing needs to improve- the Dutch aren’t going to allow you too many chances. Ivan Saenko, Dmitry Torbinsky, Denis Kolodin, Andrei Arshavin and Sergei Semak are all on yellows.

Guus Hiddink’s Russia lost 1-4 to Holland in July 2007. But this young Russian team is dangerous, and their performance against Sweden was enough for pundits to change their mind about this being a walk in the park for the Dutch. Marco Van Basten’s team to win this 3-1, with goals from Robben, Van Nistelrooy and Sniejder. Arshavin to score for Russia.

Jun 19 2008

Croatia vs Turkey preview

Group B winners Croatia will look to match their 1998 WC performance when they meet Turkey in a Euro 2008 quarterfinal at the Ernst Happel stadium in Vienna. The winners of this game will take on Germany in the semifinals.

Croatia were one of the three teams to have won all their group ties- Spain and Holland being the other two. They started off unconvincingly, just about managing to beat Austria 1-0. However they then shocked Germany 2-1, and their reserves saw off Poland 1-0. Most of Croatia’s first team starters are fit- the only major injuries are to Dario Knezevic and Igor Budan. Ivan Rakitic is raring to go, and the Schalke midfielder should start just behind the hard working Olic. This could be captain Niko Kovac’s last game for the Croats should they be knocked out. The midfielder has already announced his intention to hang up his boots post Euro 2008. Robert Kovac, Josip Simunic, Luka Modric, Darijo Srna, Jerko Leko, Ognjen Vukojevic and Hrvoje Vejic are all one on yellow card, and will miss a potential semifinal clash if they invite the ire of the referee.

Fatih Terim’s Turkey started off with a loss to Portugal, followed by wins over Switzerland and the Czech Republic. They have been a bit unlucky with injuries- especially with their centre halves. Gokhan Zan is injured, Emre Gungor is definitely out, and Servet Cetin is struggling to be fit. The Turks were fitter in the second half against the ageing Czechs, but may not retain that advantage against a well rested Croatian outfit. Goalkeeper Volkan Demirel is suspended for this clash, and we should see veteran Rustu between the sticks. Ditto for Brazilian born Mehmet Aurelio, who might be replaced by Kazim Kazim or Karadeniz. A large number of Turkish players are on yellows- Emre Asik, Mehmet Topal, Arda Turan, Sanli Tuncay, Hakan Balta, Gokhan Zan, Kazim Kazim and Sabri Sarioglu. Turan and Nihat were influential in that comeback win over the Czechs, and Croatia may have some special plans to stop the duo.

Croatia are favourites on paper, but one must not forget Turkey’s never die spirit that fetched them three points out of nowhere against Switzerland and the Czechs. However the injuries may take their toll. Turkey also need to play consistently over ninety minutes- not just play one supremely well and do nothing in the other.The Crescent Stars should give Croatia a good run for their money, but Slaven Bilic’s side should emerge winners. 2-0 to Croatia, with Kranjcar and Olic scoring.