Baseball Insight
Posted on | May 18, 2006 | No Comments
Many people bet on baseball without really thinking about why the lines are what they are. For example, take the game today between the Washington Nationals at the Chicago Cubs. Both teams are pretty bad off this year. The Nationals are 14-27 and 4-6 over their last 10 games. The Cubs are 17-23 and 3-7 over their last 10 games. The Nationals are 11-17 on the road and the Cubs are 10-10 at home. The Nationals are scoring 4.74 runs per game while the Cubs are scoring 4.46 runs per game.
Looking at these core fundamental stats would lead you to believe that these two teams are about even in expectancy—perhaps give a slight edge to the Cubs since they are at home. So, were the cubs a slight favorite at say -110 today? Absolutely not. Sportsbooks had the Cubs listed at around a -170 favorite—that’s a huge favorite in baseball. Why on earth were the Cubs such a high favorite? The answer is Kerry Woods. Since baseball lines are built around pitching mainly, the Cubs shot up to a -170 favorite even though the “team” was not that much better than the Nationals.
As usual, unsuspecting baseball bettors ran to the betting windows and gave up the -170 on the Cubs, because Woods was pitching. The end result was a 5-3 Nationals win. Sports bettors who wagered on the “team” instead of one player were happy campers. Sure, the case could be made for the Cubs winning, but would you lay -170 on a team that has a losing record and is only marginally better that their opponent? I sure hope not. Next time you run off to make a bet, look over the entire team and what you are giving up before betting.
Related posts:
- MLB: As the Baseball World Turns
- MLB: Heading into Another Weekend of Baseball
- Getting Pedro on the Cheap
- MLB: Some Quick Mid-August Baseball Thoughts
- Best Division in Baseball?