Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals
Posted on | April 28, 2006 | No Comments
Today, at 8:10pm PST, the Washington Nationals and St. Louis Cardinals play game two in the series. The Cardinals are a healthy -168 favorite and have Jason Marquis on the mound. The Nationals are countering with Tony Armas. While it would be easy to say take the Cardinals -168 at home in this one, there’s no value in it. Instead, I like the run line here. You can get the Cardinals at home against a weaker opponent for plus money by utilizing the run line. Currently, the Cardinals are +130 on the run line (-1.5).
The Cardinals are averaging 3.27 runs per game, which is on the lower end. However, that number jumps up when playing lower teams in the National League, like the Nationals. Yesterday, the Cardinals beat the Nationals 6-2. Last season, Jason Marquis faced the Nationals once and held them to no runs over nine innings. It was a dominant performance. This season, the performances by Marquis have been average, but he is 3-1 due to the overall ability of the Cardinals team.
Tony Armas is having a pretty good year—if you take the road performances off the record. His road ERA is 4.09. Last season he had one performance against the Cardinals and was blown out. He gave up five runs over five innings. He also gave up five walks in that contest. So far Armas has faced teams that he, by in large, did very well against in 2005, which might explain his 2.70 overall ERA. Tonight will definitely be a test for him. He’s averaging just over 5 innings per start so the Nationals bullpen will be a factor. This game really only has two possible plays. You either take the Nationals or you take the Cardinals on the run line.
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