Line Value and Winning
Posted on | April 19, 2006 | No Comments
We have been talking about value a lot so far this season. I wanted to give you a tangible piece of information that will help you realize how well you need to do before making a sports wager. Your goal is to bet game as close (or under) -100 as possible. However, many of your plays will be above this point—some under. One surefire way to accomplish this goal is to stay away from all plays that are -160 or higher. Think about this for a moment. If you bet on heavily favored teams, say -200 on average, you would need to win around 67% of your wagers just be break even. Basically, a team needs to win 109 games just to hit 67%. How often does that happen? Betting on highly favored teams is just bad betting.
Let’s got over some figures and see what winning percent is needed to break even. The lines are your overall average lines played. For example, if you bet one game at -110 and another at -130, your average line is -120. We will start with higher line averages and move downward.
If your average line is -160, you need to win about 63% of your plays to break even.
If your average line is -150, you need to win about 60% of your plays to break even.
If your average line is -140, you need to win about 58% of your plays to break even.
If your average line is -110, you need to win about 52.5% of your plays to break even.
If your average line is +110, you need to win about 48% of your plays to break even.
You should see how getting value on each and every play is important. No sports bettor can sustain win percentages in the upper 60’s over time. The next time you go to bet on a sports play, remember these numbers and bet accordingly.
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