As the first week of baseball comes to a close, we are starting to see some things happen. Don’t be fooled. It’s about this time that commentators start talking about how hot a team is or isn’t and how this might be the year. They talk about how great or poor a player is doing and how this might be his year—or not. Remember, the season is 162 games long and there’s only about 8 in the books. Just because the Detroit Tigers having a winning record does not mean they are a team to bet on.

You really want to wait a couple of weeks before betting on a regular basis. This is the time when all players are starting to get used to playing on a regular basis again. You will have pitchers who seem to dominate when in reality they just beat a team whose hitters where working to find their groove. You might have a pitcher who performs poorly, but he is just dusting out the cobwebs. Perhaps he only pitched 6-10 innings in spring training.

I like to wait at least a couple of weeks to see how things shape up. Ideally, I wait until the starters are coming around on their fourth rotation, so about 16 games into the season. This is enough time to begin to see who is just dusty and who might be having a truly bad year. Teams like Detroit will have played more teams than just the bottom of the barrel normally and you will start to see them coming back to earth. So, if you are betting baseball right now, do it gently. Play your games, but save the consistent action for another 8 games.