As I have starting to show, finding value is what really determines a winning baseball bettor from a losing baseball bettor. It’s not enough to simply win your picks. If you are making bad value bets, you will ultimately fail. Let’s take a hypothetical look at two sports bettors. The first baseball bettor went 5-5 and made poor value plays. The second baseball bettor went 5-5 and made solid value plays.

For this example, I will simply list the rate of the bet and outcome. Each better will bet enough to win $10. So, for example, betting a game where the favorite is a -150 means the bettor bet $15 to win $10. All of the following examples will be favorite bets.

baseball Bettor #1

1. -220 LOST
2. -110 WIN
3. -130 WIN
4. -200 WIN
5. -170 LOST
6. -160 LOST
7. -180 WIN
8. -165 LOST
9. -130 LOST
10. -110 WIN

Result: 5-5 (lost $34.50)

baseball Bettor #2

1. +100 LOST
2. -110 WIN
3. -120 WIN
4. -105 LOST
5. -110 WIN
6. +100 LOST
7. -105 LOST
8. -115 WIN
9. -110 LOST
10. -110 LOST

Result: 5-5 (lost $13)

If bettor number two wins game 11, he/she is just about even, whereas bettor number one needs a string of wins to get to even or he/she must press their wager up.

Both of these bettors wagered on almost all of the same games. Here’s the key. Remember that post “Getting Pedro on the Cheap”? Many sports bettors simply ran and paid the $2.30, because it was a “lock”. The smart bettors, utilized the run line and knocked the game down to a value play. Being able to change a loss from -230 to -130 (or whatever) is huge in the grand scheme of things. Learn to turn poor value games into good ones and you will be on your way to being profitable.